Romney vs. Obama 2012

America Will Vote for President in 2012 - Will Romney or Obama Win?

America Will Vote for President in 2012 – Will Romney or Obama Win?

So the real Presidential race is here: Romney vs. Obama 2012. This will be a very different campaign than the 2008 election. Last time around was a complete open election with fresh candidates competing from both sides of the political spectrum. Not so this time. We will take a couple of moments here to weigh in on what we see shaping up as a very important election seasons.

Campaign 2012: Romney vs. Obama

It’s the Economy, Stupid!

Although this race has barely begun (Romney hasn’t even picked a running mate yet), we are already seeing the battle lines being drawn. Both seem determined to fight over the health of the economy. Former Governor Romney wants to fight the battle on the terms of the slow growth of the overall economy and somewhat suspect recovery. This is backed up by the continued higher-than-desired unemployment levels and sub-par GDP growth. Facts-is-facts the ex-Governor would say and it is hard to argue that the economic picture is rosy.

President Obama will have to defend his record on the economy, and it will not be an easy task. On the other hand, he will be quick to point out that when he was handed the keys to the Oval Office, the economy was just at the beginning stages of the worst economic crisis of our lifetimes. The Congress, the outgoing President (Bush Jr), and Hank Paulson engineered a series of emergency financial measures in the lame-duck days of the 2008 Congress and President that kept a number of automotive and financial institutions afloat as the new President (Obama) took office. President Obama will continue to hammer this message home to the American people although it will begin to ring on deaf ears on those long-term unemployed and under-employed workers. The President has either the onerous job of finding a scapegoat for the nation’s continued woes or to take ownership of the state of the economy in 2012.

The President will attack Mitt Romney’s private capital record – with good justification, but like the malaise message from 2008 it also will ring hollow. Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital was in business to make investors money – and they did it exceedingly well. Obama can not make the same claim about his own performance for the American people with the keys to the economy 2009-2012. On the other hand, it’s a whole nuther leap of logic to say Romney (or McCain) would have done better. I seriously doubt it.

Edge: Romney

When it comes to the economy, Romney is going to have an edge. Romney’s Bain Capital record may not endear him to voters, but voters are also smart enough to know that Romney was not answerable to voters while at Bain. President Obama, on the other hand, WILL have to answer to voters for the slow progress on the economy. He can perhaps point to some of the European economies which have collapsed – but doing so also invites comparisons to those European economies doing well. The President clearly has an uphill battle on the economy.

Obama’s Major Healthcare and Financial Reforms

The second area of contention in this Romney vs. Obama 2012 election will be the major reforms under-taken by his administration. The first being health care (Obamacare), and the second being the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Act (see Dodd-Frank / Binary Options). While his performance on the economy has been at least defensible, his major reforms of the financial and healthcare industries have been under attack since before the ink on his signatures dried. As the recent JPMorgan (essentially proprietary) trading losses would indicate, financial reform missed the mark and has been dreadfully slow in implementation. Now in fairness to The President – the banking industry has lobbied heavily and done everything they possibly could by means of their Republican friends in Congress to stall implementation in the hopes of repealing the legislation post-2012 elections. At this point I think you could say the Banksters have all but won, unless the electorate wakes up in 2012 and white-washes the Republicans out of their House majority.

Similarly – implementation of the healthcare reforms has also been delayed – in this case by gangs of (primarily) Republican State’s Attorneys’ General. These Governors and their Attorneys General have filed collectively 26+/- suits opposing parts (or all) of the Federal Healthcare mandate. This issue is not a lay-up slam-dunk for Romney though, given the legislated Federal reforms are modeled on similar legislation passed in his State of Massachusetts which he both supported and signed into law.

Edge: Romney in a Dead Heat

While Mitt Romney may feel somewhat safely distant from the Republican lobbyists who have handcuffed financial reforms, he won’t be able to ignore the source of the Healthcare reforms. Further, if the Obama campaign can find ways to tie Romney to the same financial lobbyists who have stalled Dodd-Frank implementation, it could be a winning issue for him. That is a BIG IF, however.

National Defense – Osama Bin Laden, Iraq, Afganistan

National defense is not normally an issue one would associate with a Democratic President, yet here we are. Arguably the one unassailable bright spot for President Obama has been the execution of the overall strategy of national defense. No major screw-ups, plus one major victory along with a number of minor victories. Osama Bin Laden is dead, and President Obama monitored in real-time the events leading to that historic victory in the war on terror. Shown as an engaged Commander-in-Chief, he clearly demonstrated commitment to bringing America’s #1 most wanted to justice. Compare that to the fiddle-fuddling bumbling press conferences of his predecessor (Bush Jr.) and the difference could not be more clear. Too bad for President Obama he is not running against Bush Jr.

On the global stage I think it would be fair to say that the United States has regained some of its lost reputation. On the other hand China, North Korea, and Iran continue to thumb their noses at the United States. Romney effectively has no international credibility – and voters are not likely to think any less of him for that.

Edge: Obama

The problem with having a solid strength like Obama does on national defense is the lack of comparable experiences in his opponent. It’s tough to attack a non-existent record. Still, Obama deserves credit where credit is due.

Overall Opinion: Romney vs. Obama 2012

Overall I think it is fair to say President Obama has done a competent job. He’s done what he’s had to do, and pushed for needed financial, healthcare, and economic reforms. Unfortunately for him far too much of the reforms’ benefits will come too late or not be implemented at all. It is my hope he gets another go around in the Oval Office, but unfortunately for him far too much of the fortune of the 2012 election rests on the shaky global economy – over which no one – Romney, Obama, or anyone else – has any control.

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About S Wise

I teach others about the various uses of binary options as part of an options trading strategy. Learn to make money trading options and increase the performance of your portfolio without inducing excessive risk.
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12 Responses to Romney vs. Obama 2012

  1. boatman1 says:

    i think it will matter little, steve, tho i like romney better, of course.

    the next president, regardless of who wins, goes down as the worst ever, like hoover unjustly did.

    this will be due to unsustainable sovereign debt in the developed west……..going over the cliff in about oct. 2015…….basically the bottom of the long wave Kress and Kondrateif cycles.

    i will be back here then to converse on what happened…..not that i won’t be sooner, anyway.

    tho we’re on different sides of the deal, i always appreciate your ‘takes’ on kudlow’s show.

    your token gold bug.

  2. I wish the American people would blame the right scapegoat: Congress.

  3. boatman1 says:

    i agree with you there, buddy.

    its hard to get re-elected making hard choices, nowadays….used to be, that was respected……admirable…..electable.

    look out to 10 years at the medicare part of this………7X social security.

    the medical community for the feds {like the public service unions for the muni’s} will break us.

    my friend jeff was paid a total of 3MIL$ to fix air conditioners for 25 years for the local school board, including his pension………..fact……an exact number……he would have made 600,000$ in the same time in the private sector……….retired at 45……rediculous……unsustainable.

    my 83 year iold buddy frank was on 28 prescription meds and was feeling worse n worse……we threw 27 of them in the trash……..kept his blood pressure med.

    now he can pick up the morning paper again………that was 3 years ago.

    have a very pleasant memorial day, Steve……..i’m off in the boat tomorrow til tuesday, anchored behind a sandbar on the ocean.

  4. boatman1 says:

    IzaKaminska writes for FinancialTimes from Switzerland

    Maybe an announcement this w/e? Currency controls in Europe?….scary stuff Steve……….

    She Tweeted this earlier:
    Izabella Kaminska ‏@izakaminska
    OK, just went thru two usually abandoned Swiss/France borders. Both buzzing with activity. Someone cleaning posters off windows of one of them.

    • This is going to come completely out of left field, but something I read this morning is sticking with me. I have repeatedly been in “exercises” in my life where I worked with or was on teams with “uber-competitors” – people driven to win at all costs and take all the spoils.

      The “best-fit” career path for many of these types has been in finance – given it can be mostly considered a game to be won with tremendous advantages for those who play and win. Where this all falls apart is when the game has been so thoroughly won that “normal/average” people (en-masse) give up all hope and stop playing.

      At that point, something breaks, and you end up with a “Hatfields & McCoys” style meltdown. In Europe, things really ARE breaking. Austerity mode has hit hard, and maybe – just maybe people are giving up.

      Will they take up arms next?

      • boatman1 says:

        yes….i see….i ‘get’ that…….no doubt its coming if not here to a degree.

        interesting gold flipped out of risk asset class[like it will do on occasion]……..on the horrble jobs #……….if it was on QE anticipation then oil n SnP would be going up too….instead of down.

        i realize USD lost 1$ but it gained 35cts. back and gold is still flying.

        and golds % gain was more than USDs loss.

        12,250ish an important DOW line per my PH.D. econ ewave buddy…………monday could be bloody[ISM was not good either]

        rumors ben wants RBOB gas at 2.60 before QE hint…….its almost there.

        soon, QE liquidity will not float us anymore……..that will be when the DOW just goes down and gold goes up.

        Steve, there is just too much debt, projecting it out………and raising taxes cannot pay for it [50 trillion in medicare/caid in next 20[i believe] years] and would tank the econ anyway………….. who is going to rein in the medical community?……….fear of death and elections guarrantees no one.

        it will go on til it cannot.

        germans to fund greek hairdressers retiring at 80% at 52 years old?…………

        answer is no n i don’t blame them.

      • I think the message needs to be ‘shared sacrifice’ – with those who benefited most from the excesses “sharing” the most in the sacrifices.

        Personally I think it’s going to come to pitchforks, given what I’ve seen in the past from the “uber-competitive” class.

      • boatman1 says:

        roger on the pichforks.

        i do not believe there is enough taxable money in the whole country to ACTUALLY fund the US very soon[no debt expansion].
        i do not think hollande in france is going to 75% tax on upper earners can be done without econ strangulation there……reducing the retirement age to 60 is laughable.

        believe me, i am not one of those in the ‘hypercompetitive’ class……semi and now retired since i was 48……never made over 80K in any year in my life yet everythings paid off.

        it would startle you to know what i live on happily…..in fact, you would not believe me.
        i heat with wood, out of choice, tho i could push the heat button……..never had an electric bill over 60$ in florida……76deg. in here all summer.

        only money i ever borrowed in my whole life was to buy a new car i could have wrote them a ‘reader’ for…..[a check]

        i am not interested in funding hairdressers to retire at 52, like in greece[a true fact].

        the hairdresser’s union votes were bought with that 52 number.

        but i’m right there with you the banks need to be banks not hedge funds.

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